Last Updated on 16th November 2019 12:10 PM by AfriWX
Flooding Fears in KZN
Amidst the fears of heavy flooding for Kwazulu-Natal yesterday, with Severe weather warnings flying left, right and centre, all of our really good moisture and chances of heavy rainfall for the province got sucked out into the ocean.
We had already noticed early on Thursday that the latest climate models were showing the rain shifting east into the ocean. We have to however pay attention to warnings and advisories issued by the South African Weather Service. Around mid to late afternoon yesterday we noticed how the big patch of moisture was already drifting well into the ocean. This quickly saw the threat of extensive flooding and Severe Weather for Kwazulu-Natal greatly reduced.
We did indeed have some rather extensive flooding in places as the province did receive a substantial amount of rainfall this week.
We foresee a dry patch ahead for at least the next 3 days which will help dry up the waterlogged soils and bring some sunshine to the province which has been clouded over for some time now.
Severe Weather and Tornadoes
Kwazulu-Natal sure had its share of severe weather this week with not one but two Tornado’s being sighted.
The New Hanover / Mpolweni / Wartburg Tornado
The first very Severe Weather event saw an utterly devastating Tornado occurred on Tuesday the 12th of November in the Wartburg New Hanover area of Kwazulu-Natal. This devastating and destructive Tornado has taken several lives, destroyed homes and caused numerous injuries. We are so sad for such an event to take place in our own home province and our thoughts and prayers are with the families affected.
The Bergville Tornado
We then saw a second Severe Weather event with a Tornado touch down yesterday afternoon on Thursday 14 November 2019. This occurred in the Bergville area of Kwazulu-Natal. This tornado luckily did not turn into a destructive event like that which occurred on Tuesday in Mpolweni. That said, it does indeed show how Kwazulu-Natal and the terrain of the province is very well capable of producing some very Severe Storms.
History of Tornadoes in South Africa
Check out our Complete History of Tornadoes in South Africa, you won’t believe just how many “recorded” tornadoes and how much Severe Weather our country is capable of producing. Important also to note that this page only has recorded sightings.
Where did all our rain go?
All of our moisture available for precipitation has been sucked out East into the ocean where it is sitting this morning a very sizeable Tropical Storm sitting in the Mozambique Channel between Mozambique and Madagascar. This storm appears to be producing some very Severe Weather heading towards Madagascar.
It appears any threat of flooding or any further Severe Weather right now is greatly reduced as the dense band of moisture is well into the ocean. We also see a dry weekend ahead for the country. So hopefully after a very eventful and very tragic week we can all take a breath, enjoy some sunshine and reflect on how lucky we are to still be here.
Rainfall Outlook for the Next 10 Days
Here is our latest GFS 10-Day rainfall outlook for the next 10 days 15 to 25 November 2019.
Cloud Cover Outlook for Southern Africa
Here is also our latest 10-day GFS Cloud Cover outlook for Southern Africa
Minimum and Maximum Temperatures Outlook for Southern Africa
Lastly here is also our ICON and ARPEGE Climate Model Rainfall Outlooks for the next 4 to 8 days.
That’s all for now South Africa, have a wonderful weekend, be safe, travel safe and spare a moment to reflect on the lives lost during this week’s tragic severe weather events.